Ukraine Conflict: Day 62

Russian offensives have made small but significant gains along the north front of the East Donbas salient, while fierce fighting continues across the 120km front south of Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile in Germany, an international summit of 40 nations’ Defence Ministers discussed co-ordinating foreign aid to Ukraine.

Zaporizhzhia

As intense shelling continued across the 120km Zaporizhzhia front, fierce fighting took place near Huliaipole and Kamianske. 16km east of Huliapole, some accounts are claiming that the village of Malynivka has been occupied by the attacking Russians.

East Donbas

A Russian offensive appears to be well underway from Izyum with some success, while Russian troops have advanced south and west from Zarichne and stormed the outskirts of Yampil.

20km northeast of Popasna, the Russians have secured Novotoshkivske and advanced against Orikhove and Nyzhnie. Popasna itself remains contested, with some separatist accounts claiming (prematurely, we believe) that the central railway station has been captured by the attackers.

The Russians appear to be grinding out small but significant advances in the north and northeast of the East Donbas salient. If further Russian gains materialise over the coming days, the attacking forces launching from Izyum and Zarichne are likely to play a significant role.

South of Maryinka, separatist forces are believed to have secured the village of Novomykhailivka, as pressure continues against the Ukrainian forces in this region.

Odessa and Kherson

Two missile strikes against the H-33 bridge over the Dniester-Liman, south of Odessa, have resulted in the bridge’s closure to traffic.

Ukraine claims to have destroyed a Russian SAM system and command post on Snake Island, captured by the Russians in the opening stages of the war. They have not indicated which weapons or forces were involved in the attack.

Another Orlan-10 recon drone was shot down recently by the Ukrainians near Mykolaiv. Ukraine claims to have repelled a Russian advance from Kherson in this sector.

Shelling continued in five Ukrainian -held villages south of Kryvyi Rih, with Russian ground forces using artillery and MLRS. A power substation was damaged near Zelenodolsk.

Kharkiv

The combat fronts near Kharkiv remain static.

Transnistria

Following yesterday’s explosions, reports of skirmishes and drone activity continue to emerge from Transnistria. The rump state hosts large stockpiles of old Soviet materiel and ammunition, as well as a Russian garrison of 1,500 troops.

Foreign Aid

A mass summit of defence leaders saw 40 countries represented at a US military base in Germany.

The nations have agreed to form a contact group that meets monthly in order to ensure that Ukraine’s defence needs in terms of foreign aid and material are met.

In other news, Raytheon will not be able to produce new Stinger missiles in order to meet demand generated by the Ukraine conflict. The well-known MANPAD was taken off production lines twenty years ago, although the US maintains a sizeable stockpile. Placing the old missile back into production would require a significant modernisation of its electronics, at a time when Raytheon is committed to developing a new missile ‘for a sole international customer’. It will thus take a considerable amount of time — likely years — in order to produce new Stingers. Given the US military’s large stockpiles, Raytheon does not anticipate a new order until 2023 at the earliest.