Ukraine Conflict: Day 51 - 53

While Russia continues to turn up the heat on East Donbas, progress remains limited on all fronts.

Kiev

Russian missile strikes have continued against Kiev; Russia claims this is ‘retaliation’ for Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region (which are disputed) and against the city of Belgorod, as well as the recent sinking of the Moskva in the Black Sea. Small-scale skirmishes around Ukraine’s northern border checkpoints have been reported following the Russian withdrawal on 30th March, and subsequent reoccupation by Ukrainian troops.

A Russian missile was also intercepted near Vasylkiv, in Kiev.

In addition to attacks on Kiev, Russian missiles have continued to target Lviv and surrounding areas, in the west of Ukraine.

Moskva Sinking

Footage of a damaged Moskva being towed in calm waters has cast doubt on the Kremlin’s claim that the ship sank ‘during rough weather’ though there remains the possibility that sea conditions worsened after the photo was taken.

Kherson and Zaporizhzhia

Despite continued fighting, there appear to have been no significant developments on the Kherson or Zaporizhzhia fronts.

Kharkiv

Shelling in Kharkiv has continued over the Easter weekend. A Ukrainian counter-offensive climas to have cleared Russian forces from the area around Bazalievka, to the east of the city.

East Donbas

Despite a significant concentration of troops and continued fighting, there appear to be no advances further than Brazhkivka (a village captured last week) for the Russians south of Izyum.

Further to the East, a Russian offensive appears to have taken part of Rubizhne, while the town of Kreminna has apparently come under Russian control. There appears to be slow but steady progress in this area.

Despite constant shelling around Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Velyka Novosilka, there do not appear to have been any advances by either side in the south and east of the East Donbas salient.

Strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure links to East Donbas continue daily.

Mariupol

The Russians have issued an ultimatum to the last defenders of Mariupol’s Azovstal industrial complex, as the fall of Mariupol looms closer.

Other

The credit rating agency Moody’s threatens to declare Russia in default if it continues to insist on payment in roubles, in contravention of contractual arrangements to service payments on its national debt in US dollars.