Ukraine Conflict: Day 41

Incredible drone footage shows at least one Ukrainian tank and artillery engaging a Russian column. The amount of live footage of combat operations emerging from this war is unprecedented, though most footage as a rule comes from the Ukrainian side (with all the biases that entails).

Russia launched significant assaults in East Donbas during the morning of day 41, but does not appear to have secured any major successes as a result. On the other hand, there is usually a lag between successful operations taking place and being recorded. From the available evidence, we would venture to say that most of today’s Russian offensive has been successfully repulsed; however, more details will emerge in the coming days.

East Donbas

Russian assaults continued along the East Donbas front at dawn on day 41. In particular, the Russian 1st Tank Regiment appears to have occupied the village of Brazhkivka south of Izyum, but failed to capture the neighbouring village of Sulyhivka. Additional assault operations took place near Nyzhnie, Popasna, Kalynove, Troitske, and Novoselivka Druha.

A simultaneous assault took place near Kherson in the direction of Mykolaiv, supported by artillery. This operation achieved partial success in the direction of Olexandrivka, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. 15,000 civilians have been evacuated from this region by rail.

Drone footage shows two destroyed Russian T-72 tanks, advancing south from Izyum, presumably part of these operations.

Russian jets were sighted operating over Donbas in support of these operations.

The following footage claims to show Russian TOS-1 MLRS shelling targets in Maryinka, East Donbas. Regardless of whether the footage was taken in this context, this is how MLRS operates, launching a large number of explosive rockets towards a relatively small area within a short space of time.

Missile Defences

Ukraine claims to have downed two Russian missiles over Dnipro overnight. In the west of Ukraine, near Lutsk, 3 out of 4 Su-25 launched air to surface missiles (ASMs) were shot down, with the fourth damaged and straying from its target. The recent effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defence systems is likely related to arriving shipments of modern Western technology, including British-supplied Starstreak missiles.

Footage has emerged revealing extensive Russian earthworks dug inside the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Disturbing the soil here increases the local radiation, and thus the risk of radiation sickness among soldiers stationed in the vicinity.

Equipment Losses

Large amounts of Russian equipment losses near Kharkiv, incurred at the end of March, are recorded here.

Mariupol

Footage from Russian separatists in Mariupol.

Colourful speculation has emerged concerning rumours of NATO officers from France and the USA attempting to escape from Mariupol, having directed defending forces during the siege. These rumours are currently unsubstantiated.

Foreign Aid

4.2 million Ukrainians have fled the country as refugees since the invasion began, representing approximately 10% of the country’s pre-war population. Most are currently in Poland, with other European countries also accepting refugees (including Britain).

Following recent announcements from the Pentagon that the US would ‘facilitate’ the transfer of tanks to Ukraine, footage has emerged of Czech T-72M1 tanks being loaded up for transport to the warzone. These variants are similar enough to the Ukrainian T-72 that the local crews should be able to operate them with minimal additional difficulty. Clearly NATO has recognised that the next phase of the conflict is likely to demand a strategic offensive of Ukraine’s military, in order to recapture territory in the south of the country.